Emerging technologies such as industrial robots, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are rapidly advancing. While these innovations can enhance the speed, quality, and cost-efficiency of goods and services, they also have the potential to displace large numbers of workers. This situation poses a challenge to the traditional model of linking health care and retirement savings to employment. In an economy that requires significantly fewer workers, it is essential to reconsider how benefits are provided to displace workers. As automation potentially makes jobs less secure, there must be a way to deliver benefits independently of employment. One possible solution is “flexicurity.” It provides flexible security with health care, education, and housing assistance, regardless of employment status. Activity accounts could also fund lifelong education and retraining. This approach helps people lead fulfilling lives even as the need for workers decreases.
The Expanding List of New Technologies
The list of emerging technologies continues to grow, including innovations like robots, augmented reality, algorithms, and machine-to-machine communications, all of which assist people in a variety of tasks. These technologies are broad in scope and have the potential to significantly transform businesses and personal lives. They can make life easier and improve both personal and business interactions. As technology becomes increasingly sophisticated, its impact on the workforce is profound.
Exploring the Impact on Workforce and Public Policy
This article examines the impact of robots, artificial intelligence, and machine learning on the workforce and public policy. If automation and robotics reduce the need for workers, and many social benefits are tied to employment, how will people who are outside the workforce for extended periods access health care and pensions? These are critical questions for public policy, and it is crucial to determine how to deliver social benefits in the evolving digital economy.
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Emerging Technologies
- Growth in Industrial Robotics
The deployment of industrial robots is on the rise across developed nations. In 2013, an estimated 1.2 million robots were in use, increasing to approximately 1.5 million by 2014, with a projection to reach around 1.9 million by 2017. Japan leads in the number of robots, with 306,700 units, followed by North America (237,400), China (182,300), South Korea (175,600), and Germany (175,200). The robotics industry is expected to expand from a $15 billion sector today to $67 billion by 2025.
- Decreasing Costs of Robotics and Automation
A study by RBC Global Asset Management highlights the significant reduction in the costs of robots and automation. Historically, the high expense of industrial robots restricted their use to high-wage industries, such as the automotive sector. However, in recent years, the average cost of robots has decreased, making them a viable alternative to low-wage labor in several key industries in Asia.
- Advancements in Social Robots
In the early 21st century, the first wave of social robots emerged, including small, pet-like robots such as AIBO, Pleo, and Paro. As technology advanced, particularly with the development of smartphones, a new generation of social robots appeared. These include humanoids like Pepper and Jimmy, the mirror-like Jibo, and the software robot Sophie by Geppetto Avatars. A key feature of social robots is their ability to accurately understand and respond to human speech and the underlying emotional context.
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Robotics in Industrial Applications
Amazon has organized a “picking challenge” to test whether robots can autonomously grab items from a shelf and place them in a tub. With around 50,000 employees working in its warehouses, the company aims to determine if robots can handle tasks such as selecting items and moving them around the warehouse. During the competition, a robot from Berlin successfully completed ten out of twelve tasks. Amazon already employs 15,000 robots to move goods within its facilities and plans to acquire more in the future.
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Robotics in the Restaurant Industry
The restaurant industry is increasingly adopting technology to reduce human involvement in food delivery. Some establishments use tablets that allow customers to order directly from the kitchen without interacting with a waiter or waitress. Other innovations enable customers to pay directly, eliminating the need for cashiers, and guide chefs on precise ingredient quantities to reduce food waste. Additionally, experimental projects are exploring the use of robots like Nao to help people manage stress. In the pilot project “Stress Game,” researchers Thi-Hai-Ha Dang and Adriana Tapus use a board game. Participants collect objects while researchers manipulate their stress levels. Participants wear heart monitors. Nao provides coaching to reduce tension. Nao responds empathetically, encouragingly, or challengingly, depending on the situation.
A Turning Point for Advanced Societies
Advanced societies are at a critical juncture in how we perceive work, leisure, and the delivery of social benefits. As economies increasingly require fewer workers to perform necessary tasks and benefits continue to be tied primarily to full-time employment, there is a significant risk that many people will struggle to access essential services such as health care, pensions, and income support. This concern is particularly pressing in an era marked by substantial income inequality and highly uneven economic distributions.
From Scarcity to Abundance: Rethinking the Social Contract
The shift from an era of scarcity to one of potential abundance, driven by new technologies, requires a reassessment of the social contract. The traditional cycle of earning a living through work and spending income on goods and services is being disrupted. As a large portion of human labor becomes unnecessary for the economy, we must rethink our approaches to income generation, employment, and public policy. In this new economic system, many jobs may become obsolete, leaving some workers unemployable.
Addressing Persistent Unemployment and Underemployment
In this context, we must tackle policy challenges and issues related to leisure time due to persistent unemployment or underemployment. Large groups of people unable to find work face a real risk of social disruption and unrest. This can lead to poverty, dissatisfaction, and potential instability in society. We cannot maintain social stability merely by policing or isolating the wealthy in gated communities.
Ensuring Fulfillment in a Low-Employment Society
To prevent a permanent underclass of unemployed individuals, we must find ways for people to lead fulfilling lives in a society with fewer workers. This includes offering continuous learning opportunities and promoting arts and culture. We should also develop methods to supplement income and benefits beyond traditional full-time jobs. Policies that encourage volunteerism and recognize contributions to worthy causes are also important. By adopting these strategies, we can help individuals adapt to the new economic landscape and ensure a stable, fair future.